Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.020719 0.023508 0.026556 0.030141 0.034244 0.038802 0.044255
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.015935 0.019608 0.023983 0.029594 0.036624 0.045170 0.056399
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.013414 0.017418 0.022464 0.029323 0.038457 0.050271 0.066824
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.011648 0.015797 0.021273 0.029080 0.040010 0.054891 0.076895
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.010629 0.014972 0.020940 0.029813 0.042798 0.061300 0.090010
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.009506 0.013838 0.020004 0.029515 0.043988 0.065456 0.100227
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008927 0.013402 0.019983 0.030493 0.047085 0.072657 0.115804
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007945 0.012251 0.018767 0.029491 0.046978 0.074851 0.123613
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.007227 0.011427 0.017956 0.029012 0.047599 0.078189 0.133585
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006475 0.010472 0.016842 0.027909 0.047045 0.079479 0.140114
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.006237 0.010328 0.017014 0.028948 0.050194 0.087327 0.159113
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.006015 0.010185 0.017165 0.029952 0.053360 0.095499 0.179637
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005752 0.009958 0.017170 0.030724 0.056243 0.103568 0.201193
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005323 0.009404 0.016558 0.030324 0.056920 0.107615 0.215412
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004956 0.008928 0.016037 0.030034 0.057756 0.112021 0.230852
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004631 0.008500 0.015566 0.029785 0.058634 0.116575 0.247140
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004467 0.008357 0.015609 0.030537 0.061583 0.125621 0.274272
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004186 0.007966 0.015148 0.030231 0.062316 0.130112 0.291803
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004080 0.007906 0.015321 0.031234 0.065903 0.141075 0.325631
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003759 0.007395 0.014557 0.030207 0.064988 0.142051 0.335912
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003522 0.007034 0.014066 0.029715 0.065201 0.145562 0.352784
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003241 0.006562 0.013313 0.028584 0.063857 0.145347 0.360298
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003188 0.006562 0.013543 0.029650 0.067679 0.157672 0.401626